New solar, wind and heat pumps could save twice the gas the EU imports from Qatar by 2030

The 2026 energy crisis is testing the EU’s resilience once again. This new challenge offers an opportunity to break free from dependence on imported gas from any source and to build on the lessons learned from the 2022 energy crisis. 

That crisis led to an 84% increase in EU imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) between 2021 and 2025, when they reached a record high. But the fragility of relying on LNG has been brought home by recent damage to export facilities in Qatar, an important supplier of LNG to Europe. 

The EU must decrease its gas demand by accelerating the rollout of wind, solar and residential heat pumps, thereby offsetting the need to import LNG. This is the most effective way to structurally reduce Europe’s reliance on volatile fossil fuel imports. 

Clean energy boosts EU resilience 

Following the disruption to global energy markets caused by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the European Commission launched the REPowerEU Plan in May 2022. The strategy aims to end the EU’s dependence on imports of Russian energy by reducing energy consumption, expanding the use of renewables and securing energy supplies from alternative sources. 

Between 2021 and 2024, the EU reduced its gas demand by approximately 78.5 billion cubic metres (bcm), equivalent to a 20% decline. Renewables and heat pump deployment, combined with gas demand reduction policies, were significant drivers of this decline. Between 2021 and 2024, EU households cut gas consumption by 24%, industry by 20%, commercial and public services by 19%, and electricity and heat generation by 18%.

EU heat pump deployment grew rapidly for much of the past decade, primarily in residential and commercial buildings.¹ The EU deployed around 7.6 million heat pumps over 2022–2024. France installed the most, with roughly 2 million units, followed by Italy (1.5 million) and Germany (nearly 1 million). 

EU countries installed 146 gigawatts (GW) of solar photovoltaics from 2022 to 2024, led by Germany, Spain, Poland, Italy, France and the Netherlands. Utility-scale solar makes up 39% of the EU’s cumulative solar capacity, with the rest installed on rooftops, according to SolarPower Europe. EU countries installed more than 43GW of wind capacity from 2022 to 2024, led by Germany, Finland, Sweden, France, Spain, the Netherlands and Poland. 

New heat pumps, solar and wind could cut EU gas demand by a quarter by 2030 

Clean energy investments can mitigate energy supply risks, whether from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz or the supply gap created by the EU’s full ban on imports of Russian gas, which takes effect in 2027. 

By analysing Eurostat data on wind and solar production and the impact of new heat pumps on gas demand with the EU’s LNG imports in recent years, IEEFA concludes that clean energy has helped offset the EU’s LNG import dependency. IEEFA estimates that heat pump deployment and increased solar and wind generation reduced EU gas demand by 8.8bcm in 2024 — equivalent to about two-thirds of EU imports of Qatari LNG that year.

Gas savings will continue to grow as the installed clean energy base expands. IEEFA estimates that achieving the EU’s targets of installing at least 4 million heat pumps, 75GW of solar and 22GW of wind annually over the next five years could cut gas demand by around a quarter by the end of 2030 — excluding other gas-saving measures. This saving is equivalent to double the volume of LNG the EU could import from Qatar by 2030.

The scale-up of clean energy technologies alongside grid investment will help the EU achieve its new 2040 electrification target, which is part of the new push to cut the bloc’s dependence on imported oil and gas amid the ongoing Middle East crisis. 

If Europe continues with efforts to reduce gas consumption, improve energy efficiency and expand renewables, LNG and pipeline gas imports will decrease and external energy crises may pose less of a threat to the continent’s energy security.

1 This analysis focuses on sectors where the direct impact of wind, solar and heat pumps on gas demand is easier to calculate.