Submission on AEMO Draft 2025 Inputs Assumptions and Scenarios Report (IASR) Stage 2

31 March 2025

To: The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO)
Re: Submission on AEMO Draft 2025 Inputs Assumptions and Scenarios Report (IASR) Stage 2

Thank you for the opportunity to provide input on Stage 2 of AEMO’s Draft 2025 IASR.

IEEFA is an independent energy finance think tank that examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy.

The IASR assumptions play a key role in the ISP and other AEMO processes, and we acknowledge the considerable effort undertaken by AEMO to compile the IASR while implementing significant changes to the ISP methodology.

Our submission focuses on several key areas of the Draft IASR that are relevant to IEEFA’s research, or where we feel additional detail would be particularly helpful.

This IASR incorporates material changes to biomethane outlooks. However, we consider that further clarifications or revisions may be required.

We have also offered initial suggestions regarding the design of IASR sensitivities, and the representation of technical carbon sequestration in the model.

Finally, we note that outputs of the multi-sectoral modelling were not available at the time of completing our submission. We would value the opportunity for further consultation on forecasts that are heavily dependent on the multi-sectoral modelling – including electrification – once the final modelling report is available.

Our detailed comments are provided in the following pages. Please do not hesitate to contact us to discuss any of the matters raised in this submission.

Kind regards,

Jay Gordon, Energy Finance Analyst, Australian Electricity, IEEFA