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Gas's role in the transition

May 11, 2023
Bruce Robertson
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Key Findings

Gas usage for gas-powered electricity generation in Australia has collapsed.

Gas usage for electricity generation has almost halved in recent years dropping 47% from 2012 – 2022 and is expected to drop a further 34% to 2030.

The amount of gas we will need for electricity generation by 2030 is very small, at just 4% of forecast production on the east coast of Australia.

Gas usage for gas-powered electricity generation in Australia has collapsed.

Between 2014 and 2022, gas usage for gas powered generation fell by 47%. A market that virtually halves in just eight years is usually termed a collapse.

Gas in Australia

 

By 2030, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO)forecasts gas usage for electricity generation will fall a further 34% to just 76 petajoules from 116PJ in 2022. AEMO forecasts demand will suffer a further collapse in that period.

This paper will seek to explain how gas usage for gas-powered generation is suffering a collapse on top of a collapse.

Bruce Robertson

Bruce Robertson has been an investment analyst, fund manager and professional investor for over 36 years. He has worked with Perpetual Trustees, UBS, Nippon Life Insurance and BT. He has appeared as an expert witness before a number of government enquiries into energy issues.

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