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Gas's role in the transition

May 11, 2023
Bruce Robertson
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Key Findings

Gas usage for gas-powered electricity generation in Australia has collapsed.

Gas usage for electricity generation has almost halved in recent years dropping 47% from 2012 – 2022 and is expected to drop a further 34% to 2030.

The amount of gas we will need for electricity generation by 2030 is very small, at just 4% of forecast production on the east coast of Australia.

Gas usage for gas-powered electricity generation in Australia has collapsed.

Between 2014 and 2022, gas usage for gas powered generation fell by 47%. A market that virtually halves in just eight years is usually termed a collapse.

Gas in Australia

 

By 2030, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO)forecasts gas usage for electricity generation will fall a further 34% to just 76 petajoules from 116PJ in 2022. AEMO forecasts demand will suffer a further collapse in that period.

This paper will seek to explain how gas usage for gas-powered generation is suffering a collapse on top of a collapse.

Bruce Robertson

Bruce Robertson has been an investment analyst, fund manager and professional investor for over 36 years. He has worked with Perpetual Trustees, UBS, Nippon Life Insurance and BT.

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