Submission: AEMO’s Draft 2025 Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios Report (IASR) scenarios

August 13, 2024

Johanna Bowyer and Jay Gordon and Amandine Denis-Ryan

Download Full Version

13 August 2024

To: Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO)
RE: 2025 IASR Scenarios

Thank you for the opportunity to comment on AEMO’s Draft 2025 Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios Report (IASR) scenarios.

AEMO’s Integrated System Plan (ISP) and other planning outputs continue to play a critical role in energy system planning in Australia.

IEEFA supports AEMO’s intention to build on the three existing scenarios as used in the 2024 ISP. However, we have provided several suggestions as to how these scenarios could be improved further. This includes considerable changes to the Green Energy Exports scenario to transform this into a balanced 1.5C scenario that usefully examines the impacts of greater demand-side actions.

It is useful to provide a concise, divergent set of scenarios to explore the range of uncertainty around Australia’s future energy system. However, as a general observation, AEMO must take care to ensure that each scenario remains credible and useful. In some cases, the inclusion of overly speculative assumptions in a particular scenario has diminished the value of that scenario, making it difficult to interpret for stakeholders.

The 2025 IASR presents an opportunity to recalibrate the balance of the core ISP scenarios, and consider what specific uncertainties would be best explored through the use of sensitivities.

The authors of this submission have significant collective experience in energy system modelling and analysis, including the use and development of scenarios. We are happy to discuss any of these topics further with AEMO if useful, and we look forward to further engagement on the 2025 IASR and 2026 ISP.

Regards,

Johanna Bowyer – Lead Analyst, Australian Electricity
Jay Gordon – Energy Finance Analyst, Australian Electricity
Amandine Denis-Ryan – CEO, IEEFA Australia

READ THE FULL SUBMISSION

Johanna Bowyer

Johanna Bowyer is the Lead Analyst for Australian Electricity at IEEFA. Her research is focused on trends in the National Electricity Market, energy policy and decarbonisation.

Go to Profile

Jay Gordon

Jay Gordon is an Energy Finance Analyst at IEEFA, focusing on the Australian electricity sector. He brings experience in modeling Australia’s energy system transition, including investigating the role of the electricity sector in helping the broader economy transition towards a net-zero future.

Go to Profile

Amandine Denis-Ryan

Amandine Denis-Ryan is CEO of IEEFA's Australia team. Amandine is a recognized expert in net-zero emissions transitions across the economy and led the development of the first domestic net-zero emissions pathway for Australia and subsequent updates.

Go to Profile