The Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS) presents the most desirable scenario in terms of human and global safety whereby nations work together to successfully limit climate change, by transforming the energy market and addressing air pollution.
The IEA describes the newer Sustainable Development Scenario developed for World Energy Outlook 2017 as “an integrated approach to achieving internationally agreed objectives on climate change, air quality and universal access to modern energy.”
IEEFA believes the Sustainable Development Scenario will gain further weight into the future as demand for action on air pollution and carbon emissions continues to escalate. Although no guarantee, there is a strong possibility this scenario most accurately represents the global energy path forward.
Under the Sustainable Development Scenario, the planet’s “carbon budget” will be exhausted as early as 2023 under a 1.5°C target and by 2040 under a 2°C objective.
The Sustainable Development Scenario falls short of tracking a path towards meeting the Paris Agreement’s target of restricting global warming to well below 2ºC with any certainty.
A significant decline in thermal coal demand is projected by the Sustainable Development Scenario, with global trade in thermal coal plummeting 59% by 2040.
The -3.7% compound annual decline in world thermal coal trade outlined in the Sustainable Development Scenario is the most likely trend going forward.
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Press release: IEEFA Australasia: New global energy report headlines decline of coal as cheaper renewable technologies gain preference