Single-Use Plastics (SUP): Impact of a 70% Reduction Findings, Market Dynamics, and Methodology
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Key Findings
A 70% reduction in SUP would reduce demand by approximately $138 billion per year, within an estimated $197 billion global market.
A 70% reduction in SUP would avoid roughly 3.85 million barrels per day of oil consumption, almost as much oil as Exxon produces per day.
Under this scenario, Dow’s operating income could decline by 30% or more before mitigation efforts—based on a linear revenue‑to‑EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) relationship and expected negative operating leverage.
Executive Summary
This report provides a strategic analysis of the financial and operational implications of a potential 70% reduction in global single-use plastic (SUP) consumption. Our findings indicate a significant structural shift. A large reduction in SUP use would substantially lower plastics demand, reshape oil consumption patterns, and compress earnings for major producers. The estimates are designed to show order-of-magnitude effects, not precise forecasts.
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