AEMO 2020-21 planning and forecasting consultation on inputs, assumptions and scenarios

New policies and projects are announced frequently in the fast-moving National Energy Market, and forecasts become outdated quickly. Underestimating the renewables installation can lead to insufficient planning, policies, and infrastructure build, therefore a comprehensive list of all planned projects is essential. IEEFA cross-checked AEMO existing, committed and anticipated generator list against Green Energy Market’s renewable energy project list, and projects that appear to be excluded from the AEMO list has been identified.

Modelling the impact of early coal plant closures in each key state is important.

IEEFA supports AEMO’s proposal to model scenarios in which coal plant closures occur faster than originally planned.

The Energy Security Board  has noted in January 2021 that “the lowering of the future expected energy price may make it difficult for thermal plants to maintain commercial viability. It is therefore likely to lead to exits of thermal plant faster than anticipated.” Modelling the impact of early coal plant closures in each key state is important.

AEMO has proposed to model early VIC and NSW coal closures however IEEFA notes that QLD early closure modelling may also be necessary, as many QLD coal plants have a reasonably high short run marginal cost and are therefore potentially exposed to low wholesale electricity prices.

This will help the industry understand the scale of the impact of closures in different locations, and therefore develop adequate policy mechanisms to prevent any adverse impacts on price and/or reliability.