About 

IEEFA’s European LNG Tracker is an interactive data set to visualise Europe’s* LNG infrastructure, demand and capacity outlook, and import flows. It is built by compiling data from a range of sources, including Kpler, Gas Infrastructure Europe, Aggregated LNG Storage Inventory, Eurostat, Dukes and IEEFA analysis.

Last updated: September 2024, with data until June 2024.

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The volatile LNG market is affected by factors such as fluctuations in supply and demand, extreme weather, economic uncertainty, operational problems and war. In recent months and years, geopolitical issues such as Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the war in Gaza and the disruption in the Red Sea have shown that the LNG market is not only impacted by fundamentals but also by the uncertainty of how the escalation of those conflicts could affect global trade of the fuel.

Reducing gas demand has been vital for Europe’s security of energy supply. European Union (EU) countries curbed gas consumption by 19% between August 2022 and January 2023 compared to their average consumption in the same period between 2017 and 2022. They have been encouraged to continue cutting gas use to ensure they are prepared for any potential supply disruption.

Mild weather and increased renewables and nuclear output in the first half (H1) of 2024 lowered European gas demand for heating during the winter and for power generation. Consequently, European gas consumption decreased 5.4% year on year in H1 2024 and LNG imports fell by 20%.

By the end of June 2024, EU gas storage was 77% full.

* For the purpose of this project, the term "Europe" refers to the 27 member states of the European Union (EU27), the UK, Norway and Türkiye.

Existing and planned LNG infrastructure 

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Europe has added 58.5 billion cubic metres (bcm) of new LNG regasification capacity, of which the EU has added 50.8 bcm. 

This buildout includes 47.7 bcm of new floating storage regasification units (FSRUs) and 10.8 bcm of expanded terminals.

The countries that have added the most regasification capacity since February 2022 are Germany (16 bcm), the Netherlands (13 bcm), Türkiye (7.7 bcm), Italy (7.5 bcm), France (6.5 bcm) and Finland (5 bcm).

Since February 2022, eight* FSRUs have started operations in the EU and one in Türkiye.

Earlier this year, Belgium's Zeebrugge terminal was expanded by 2.52 bcm.

As gas demand falls and more LNG terminals become underutilised, some countries are perhaps starting to realise that new LNG import infrastructure may be unnecessary.

In Greece, the Alexandroupolis FSRU has been delayed and is expected to begin commercial operations in October 2024. Amid falling LNG demand, it is unclear whether three other planned Greek import terminals will go ahead.

Cyprus’s 2.4 bcm Vasiliko terminal is stalled, and plans to expand Lithuania’s Klaipėda terminal have been suspended.

Last year saw Latvia’s Skalte terminal lose support from the country’s government because it deemed it no longer necessary. Plans for a second FSRU at Poland’s Gdańsk terminal were shelved due to a lack of interest. Other terminals shelved last year were Dioriga Gas (Greece), Shannon (Ireland) and Vlora (Albania).

In Germany, the Stade terminal has been delayed and is expected to start operations in 2027, and an FSRU was relocated from Lubmin to the port of Mukran earlier this year.

Germany is continuing with plans to construct onshore terminals at Wilhelmshaven and Brunsbüttel.

*Energos Power FSRU arrived at Germany’s Ostsee/Mukran terminal in H1 2024. Ostsee/Mukran, which comprises the Neptune FSRU and Energos Power FSRU, started commercial operations on 2 September.

Gas consumption trends and LNG outlook

European gas demand continues to decline, driven by renewables deployment and energy efficiency measures.

After falling to a 10-year low in 2023, Europe’s gas consumption shrank by 5.4% year on year in H1 2024 to 232.1 bcm. EU gas consumption dropped by 3.2%.

Norway and the UK posted notable declines in gas consumption in H1 2024, falling by 36% and 13%, respectively.

The EU countries that reduced gas consumption the most were Portugal (-18% year on year), Malta (-15%), Croatia (-14%), Austria (-9%), Belgium and Czechia (each -8%). On the other hand, EU countries that increased gas consumption included Finland (37%), Greece (30%), Lithuania (27%), Estonia (25%) and Sweden (24%).

This trend translates into a reduced need for LNG imports. IEEFA forecasts that European demand for the fuel will drop 11.2% this year to 148 bcm, meaning the continent has likely already passed peak LNG consumption. By 2030, LNG demand is expected to fall to 93 bcm.

Operational LNG import terminals may already be impacted by this reduced consumption. The average utilisation rate of the EU’s terminals fell from 62.8% in H1 2023 to 47.2% in H1 2024.

The average utilisation rate of Greece and Spain’s LNG terminals was particularly low in H1 2024, at 23% and 27%, respectively.

In H1 2024, half of the EU’s LNG terminals had utilisation rates lower than 50%:

•    Barcelona, Spain (11%) 
•    Ostsee/Lubmin (Neptune FSRU), Germany (11%) 
•    Ostsee/Mukran (Energos Power FSRU/Neptune FSRU), Germany (20%)
•    Sagunto, Spain (21%) 
•    Cartagena, Spain (21%) 
•    Revithoussa, Greece (23%) 
•    Le Havre (Cape Ann FSRU), France (24%) 
•    Huelva, Spain (27%) 
•    Eemsenergy (Eemshaven FSRU), Netherlands (37%) 
•    Panigaglia, Italy (40%) 
•    Klaipėda (Independence FSRU), Lithuania (42%) 
•    Zeebrugge, Belgium (42%) 
•    Fos-Tonkin, France (45%) 
•    Inkoo (Exemplar FSRU), Finland (46%)

Nonetheless, European countries are still planning investments in new LNG import terminals. By 2030, IEEFA forecasts that this could result in more than 300 bcm of unused capacity in Europe.

LNG import and export volumes

In H1 2024, Europe’s LNG imports declined by 20% year on year; the drop was 11% for the EU.

LNG supplied 31% of Europe’s gas demand and 35% of the EU’s gas demand.

Europe’s top LNG-importing countries in H1 2024 were France (19% of the total), Spain (14%), the Netherlands (14%), Italy (10%), Türkiye (9%), the UK (8%), Belgium (7%) and Germany (5%).

Among the countries that decreased their LNG imports in H1 2024 were the UK (by 58% year on year), Türkiye (by 27%), Spain (by 23%), Belgium (by 21%), the Netherlands (by 11%) and Italy (by 9%). Germany increased its LNG imports by 10%, while French imports were flat.

In H1 2024, 48% of Europe’s LNG imports were from the U.S., 16% from Russia, 11% from Algeria, 10% from Qatar and 4% from both Nigeria and Norway.

LNG imports to Europe from the U.S. decreased by 15% year on year, those from Qatar dropped 31% and those from Nigeria fell 43%. Conversely, imports from Russia were up 11%, from Norway they increased 19% and from Algeria they rose 9%.

EU27 spending on LNG

In H1 2024, IEEFA estimates that EU countries’ spending on LNG imports decreased 41% year on year to €21 billion. The countries paid an estimated €10.5 billion for LNG from the U.S., €3.5 billion from Russia, €2.1 billion from Qatar, €2.1 billion from Algeria, €870 million from Nigeria and the rest from countries including Norway, Trinidad and Tobago, and Egypt.

Russia: LNG infrastructure and trade with Europe

Europe increased its imports of Russian LNG by 11% year on year in H1 2024.

France, Spain and Belgium accounted for 87% of Europe’s Russian LNG imports during that time. Imports of Russian LNG to France rose by 110%, those to Spain were flat and those to Belgium decreased by 16%.

The European terminals that imported the most Russian LNG in H1 2024 were Zeebrugge (Belgium), Montoir-de-Bretagne (France), Bilbao (Spain), Dunkerque (France) and Mugardos (Spain).

In June, the EU agreed to ban transshipments of Russian LNG. This is the process by which LNG cargoes from Russia’s Yamal peninsula arrive at a terminal in Europe and are transferred from icebreakers to conventional LNG carriers. This can involve the intermediate transfer of LNG to other vessels or into storage tanks. The LNG is then sent to third markets, with European countries facilitating the sale of Russian LNG. The ban will come into effect from March 2025.

The Zeebrugge and Montoir-de-Bretagne terminals continue transshipping Russian LNG from Yamal. In H1 2024, 2.90 bcm of LNG from the Yamal terminal was transshipped by Zeebrugge and 0.70 bcm by Montoir-de-Bretagne. While Russian transshipments at Montoir-de-Bretagne were almost flat year on year, those at Zeebrugge increased by 19%.