Shell’s latest LNG outlook underestimates barriers to demand growth in Asia
Shell’s 2024 Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Outlook proves that the long-term investment case for LNG beyond 2040 is fading. Instead, the company is pinning its hopes on rapid demand growth in emerging markets and China’s industrial sector, which may never materialize. Critical barriers to LNG value chain financing are likely to constrain demand growth in South and Southeast Asian markets. Moreover, LNG is unlikely to provide baseload power generation in emerging Asia due to its high costs compared to other energy sources. Shell is banking on China’s industrial decarbonization to drive global LNG demand higher, but this overlooks Chinese policies designed to limit gas dependence. Under carbon neutral pathways, China’s industrial gas usage could peak and decline through 2060.
February 20, 2024
Sam Reynolds, Christopher Doleman