New coal-fired power plants in India: Reality or just numbers?

India has a total of 209.2 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired capacity (including lignite) as of March 2021. This forms 55% of the total installed capacity and 71% of the total power generation.

India’s new draft National Electricity Policy mentions the addition of new coal-fired capacity into the generation mix, although it does not provide details of the amount of capacity to be added. However, in the past few years various government studies have provided projections for India’s power generation mix.

The Central Electricity Authority’s (CEA) January 2020 report on optimal generation mix projects India’s total coal-fired capacity to be 267GW by the end of FY2029/30 and to form 33% of the total capacity and 54% of the total generation.

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Reaching the CEA’s optimal generation mix projection of 267GW of coal-fired capacity by FY2029/30 would require 58GW of new capacity additions in the coming 9 years—roughly 6.4GW annually.

Reaching the CEA’s optimal generation mix projection of 267GW of coal-fired capacity by FY2029/30 would require 58GW of new capacity additions in the coming 9 years—roughly 6.4GW annually.

According to Global Energy Monitor’s Global Coal Plant Tracker’s (GCPT) data from January 2021, there was 36.6GW of coal-fired capacity under construction. Of which, 3.5GW was commissioned in the last quarter FY2020/21 (January to March)— leaving 33.1GW of coal-fired capacity now under construction.

In this note we review and discuss the viability of these under-construction coalfired power plants and evaluate the associated stranded asset risk in building additional coal-fired capacity in India’s electricity system.

Please view full report PDF for references and sources.