The Australian Renewable Energy Scorecard’s scope of analysis is restricted to projects that will connect to the main grid systems of the National Electricity Market (NEM) (which covers QLD, NSW, VIC, SA and TAS) and the Western Australian South-West Interconnected System (SWIS). It excludes off-grid and small grid systems such as the Pilbara’s North-West Interconnected System and the Darwin-Katherine Interconnected System. 

The grids covered by this Scorecard cover around 85% of Australia’s total electricity consumption based on information from the Australian Government’s 2025 Emissions Projections. Poor data availability inhibits the inclusion of the other sources of electricity consumption outside the NEM and SWIS.

The authors would like to extend an acknowledgement to Sustainable Energy Now for collaboration on Western Australia data. 

Required capacity for utility-scale solar, wind and batteries for the states within the NEM was sourced from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO)’s 2026 Integrated System Plan (ISP). This plan provides a series of spreadsheets labelled as the Generation and Storage Outlook. 

IEEFA and Green Energy Markets used the generation and storage outlook spreadsheet for AEMO’s Step Change scenario and associated Candidate Development Path 4 (the “optimal development path”) for transmission as the source for the megawatts (MW) of solar and wind and megawatt-hours (MWh) of battery capacity that need to be in place by 2029-30 to achieve 82% renewables across the NEM. 

In relation to battery capacity, we assume the gigawatt-hours (GWh) of storage listed under Deep, Medium and Shallow Utility-Scale Storage will all be provided by batteries. 

Green Energy Markets’ Power Generation Database was used to determine how much wind, solar and battery capacity is already in operation. This was deducted from the amount of capacity AEMO estimated was required in 2029-30 to determine the amount of new capacity required to be brought online.

For the WA SWIS, neither AEMO, nor the WA or federal governments have produced a plan for how the electricity fuel mix will need to change to deliver on the federal government’s 82% target (WA’s Whole of System Plan (WOSP) is currently under development and won’t be finalised until 2027). Therefore, the amount of renewable generation required was based on achieving 82% of underlying electricity consumption from renewables in WA in 2029-30 using AEMO’s Expected scenario forecast of electricity consumption from its WEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO). 

Rooftop solar’s contribution to power consumption was also based on AEMO’s Expected scenario forecast from its WEM ESOO. Deducting the rooftop solar generation and generation provided by already operational renewable projects (sourced from Green Energy Markets’ Power Generation Database) then provided the amount of generation growth required from new utility-scale wind and solar farms. 

Wind was assumed to provide 60% of this generation with solar the remaining 40% (roughly based on ISP NEM generation splits, given the WA WOSP is not yet released). The capacity factor (post curtailment) assumed for wind was 40%, based on recent years’ performance at modern WA wind farms. 

The capacity factor assumed for solar was 23% on an AC-rated basis, based on recent years’ performance at WA solar farms, with an allowance to account for expected future increase in solar curtailment. Transmission and distribution losses were assumed to be 7%, from the 2026 WEM ESOO. 

Required utility-scale battery capacity was derived from the average ratio of battery MWh capacity to average daily electricity consumption across the NEM states (excluding TAS) under the AEMO Step Change scenario, which was 21% for  2029-30. The already operational battery capacity (sourced from Green Energy Markets’ Power Plant Database) was then deducted from this estimate to determine the amount of additional new battery capacity required. 

New capacity required: Amount of new operational capacity each state needs to add by 2030 for Australia to meet its target for 82% of electricity to be generated from renewable energy 

Early-stage feasibility: Projects have not yet entered the planning and environmental approvals process. 

In development: Projects at various stages of advancement: from those entering the planning and/or environmental approvals process; to those under construction. 

• Awaiting approvals: Projects have not yet received any approval.
• Partial approval: Projects have received either planning or environmental approval but are still awaiting the other. 
• Fully approved: Projects have secured both planning and environmental approvals (or have planning approval and are not deemed to require environmental approval). This includes projects shown elsewhere as ‘Under construction’, ‘Approvals but not contracted’, and ‘Approved & contracted.’ 
  • Approved but not contracted: Projects have secured both planning and environmental their required approvals (or have secured planning approval and are deemed to not require an environmental approval) but have not entered into long-term customer contracts.
  • Approved & contracted: Projects have their required approvals, have entered into long-term customer contracts, and can be considered close to “shovel ready” 
  • Under construction: Financing has been committed to constructing the project, with construction firms given unconditional notice to proceed with procuring equipment and constructing project in its entirety 
  • Under construction before underwriting: Projects that began construction before receiving an underwriting agreement. 

Operational: The project is connected to the grid and producing power 

The pipeline of renewable energy projects is sourced from Green Energy Markets’ Power Project Database – as of 30 June 2026 (Q2 2026). This has been compiled over two decades using a wide range of sources, including: state and local government planning system information; information gathered from renewable energy project developers and equipment providers; the AEMO; the Clean Energy Regulator (CER); the National Environmental Protection Agency’s Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation (EPBC) Act Public Portal; and media reports. 

Information on which projects have received underwriting contracts from both the federal and NSW governments have been obtained from ASL (formerly AEMO Services).

Projects are deemed to be ‘In development’ once they begin the application process for development approval and/or EPBC approval. Prior to this point projects are deemed to be at the point of ‘Early-stage feasibility’.

Wind and solar farm projects are deemed to be ‘contracted’ once they secure a contract with a large energy consumer/electricity retailer to buy a substantial portion of the project’s output over around five years or more. They are not deemed as contracted if they have only managed to secure a government underwriting agreement because this will usually not provide sufficient revenue to make the project financially viable. 

Projects are deemed to be ‘Under construction’ once financing has been committed to constructing the project with construction firms given unconditional notice to proceed with procuring equipment and constructing the project in its entirety. Note that this might mean in some circumstances that physical construction works on site have not yet commenced; however they will almost certainly proceed given the project’s owner has entered a binding contract with a construction company and/or equipment providers to build the project. The key point here is the finance to fund the project has been committed to be spent via a contract with a construction firm and/or equipment provider. Also note that a construction contract for what is known as “early works” does not meet our criteria for being deemed ‘Under construction’, because it is not a contract to build the project in its entirety. 

Note that there are some periodic differences between Green Energy Markets’ list of projects under construction compared to AEMO’s Generation Information Page and the CER’s list of committed projects. This is due to differences in the level of research and information available to each respective organisation and the criteria applied to determining whether a project has been committed to construction. AEMO in particular must rely on survey responses from project developers, which can sometimes be subject to error or a failure to respond to the survey. Green Energy Markets meanwhile has the freedom to make use of multiple information sources and cross-check one against another. 

Projects are classified as ‘Operational’ once they begin exporting power to the electricity grid. Note that projects will then go through a process of commissioning and progressive ramp-up of output before reaching their full capacity. 

Information on rooftop solar and small-scale battery installations are sourced from Green Energy Markets’ Solar Report. This uses a data extract from the CER’s REC Registry of small-scale technology certificate (STC) claims. Please note that information on installations is reported in this Scorecard based on the date of the certificate claim registration. This is usually slightly later than the actual installation date of a system but remains a very good representation of the level of installations at the time shown in the charts.

The investment numbers are based on multiplying the megawatts of projects within a given status and technology type (wind/solar/battery) by a capital expenditure per megawatt factor for that specific technology type and an assumed percentage of the capital expenditure that will be spent domestically. The capital expenditure per megawatt factors used are: $1,354 for batteries (assumes four-hour duration); $1,249 for solar; and $2,989 for wind. 

The capital expenditure per megawatt factor is sourced from AEMO’s 2026 ISP Inputs and Assumptions Workbook version 7.8 . The Scorecard uses the build costs per megawatt figures for the Step Change scenario averaged across the years of 2025-26 to 2029-30. Averaged figures across multiple years are used because we don’t necessarily know the exact year projects in the pipeline might be committed to construction. 

The domestic expenditure proportions are: 17% for batteries; 40% for solar; and 46% for wind. These domestic proportions were informed by a combination of feedback from equipment providers and construction firms, as well as data on the component cost breakdown of utility scale projects from 2024 Energy Technology Cost and Technical Parameter Review, prepared by Aurecon for AEMO.

Construction employment numbers are based on multiplying the megawatts of projects within a given status and technology type (wind/solar/battery) by an employment factor per megawatt for that specific technology type. The amount of employment generated per megawatt by construction of a wind, solar or battery project is sourced from research undertaken by the University of Technology Sydney’s Institute for Sustainable Futures, which is detailed in their report, The Australian Electricity Workforce for the 2022 Integrated System Plan: Projections to 2050.