June 8, 2020 Read More →

Rystad: Offshore Europe, wind investment likely to top oil and gas spending by 2022

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Capital investment in sea-based wind power off Europe will match offshore oil & gas in the next year and eclipse it in 2022, according to new calculations from consultancy Rystad Energy, as the collapse in global crude markets takes its toll on supermajor’s project development ambitions.

Annual spending levels on offshore wind in the Northern seas, which has hovered above $10bn a year since 2015, is expected to climb to around $13.8bn billion in 2020, to $18.2bn in 2021, and more than $22bn the following year, as capital expenditure (Capex) in offshore oil & gas “continues [its] downwards trajectory” from more than $25bn last year to less than $17bn by 2022.

“In light of the postponement of multiple FIDs [final investment decisions] on projects and lower investments in offshore oil & gas, coupled with increasing activity in the offshore wind sector, [we] expect that the two markets will reach parity as soon as next year [and] that Capex on offshore wind will surpass upstream oil & gas spending in Europe in 2022,” said Rystad Energy’s project manager for offshore wind Alexander Flotre.

From an installed base just under 22GW last year, European offshore wind power capacity is set to expand to more than 53GW by 2025, constituting an annual growth rate of 16%, according to Rystad forecasts.

“While Europe’s ambitious plans for 2030 will require new tender rounds in the coming years, most of the commissioning activity towards 2025 is expected to come from projects that have already been approved,” noted Flotre

Megaprojects including Dogger Bank, Sofia and the coming phase of the Hornsea complex, along with developments in “established” markets such as the Netherlands, Germany, Belgium and Denmark are expected to contribute to the increased spending levels, while newcomers such as France and Poland will add to the growth in the 2023 to 2025 period, Rystad believes.

[Darius Snieckus]

More: Capital spend on sea-based wind to eclipse offshore oil off Europe ‘within two years’

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