November 13, 2019 Read More →

IRENA: Solar generation to account for 13% of global total by 2030

PV Magazine:

Solar will see its share of global power generation rise to 13% by 2030 and a quarter by 2050, according to the Future of Solar PV report published by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).

Improved PV technology will drive the production of ever cheaper solar electricity, according to the agency. The study notes the historic prices recorded in national PV generation capacity auctions indicate solar power could be produced for an average $0.048/kWh next year, a figure 44% lower than the cost of solar produced by generation facilities commissioned last year.

“Recent record low auction outcomes for solar PV in Abu Dhabi, Chile, Dubai, Mexico, Peru and Saudi Arabia have shown that an LCOE [levelized cost of energy] of $0.03/kWh is possible in a wide variety of national contexts,” the report stated.

The report forecasts the solar project development cost per kilowatt of capacity installed will fall from $1,210 last year to $340-834 in 2030 and $165-481 in 2050. The price of solar electricity is expected to fall further from an average $0.085/kWh last year to $0.02-0.08/kWh by the end of the next decade and $0.01-0.05 by mid-century.

The agency says solar may reach 2,840 GW of installed capacity by 2030 and that figure could rise to 8,519 GW in 2050. Asia is expected to claim more than half, with around 4,837 of solar capacity by 2050, followed by North America, with 1,728 GW; Europe, at 891 GW; and Africa, with 673 GW. Latin America and Oceania are expected to host 281 GW and 109 GW in 2050, respectively, according to IRENA.

In annual deployment terms, the 94 GW of new solar added last year is expected to hit 270 GW in 2030 and 372 GW by mid-century, with IRENA adding: “Along with capacity additions, replacement of solar panels at the end of their lifetime is also essential and plays a key role, especially with the benefit of old panels giving way to advanced technologies.”

More: IRENA predicts LCOE of solar will drop to $0.01-0.05 by mid century


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