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U.S. Energy Information Association says renewable generation growth will cut coal, gas market in coming years

January 20, 2023

S&P Global ($):

The rapid expansion of renewables in the US electricity generation mix, driven by declining construction costs and favorable tax credits, will reduce coal-fired and natural gas-fired generation over the next two years, according to the US Energy Information Association.

Wind and solar will account for 16% of total generation in 2023, doubling from five years ago, according to the EIA. Year over year, coal is forecast to fall 2 percentage points to 18% of the mix in 2023, while gas is expected to fall from 39% to 38%.

"One of the most significant shifts in the mix of US electricity generation over the past few years has been the rapid expansion of renewable energy resources, especially solar and wind," the EIA said in a Jan. 19 statement.

Overall, total generating capacity is projected to increase 5.7% between December 2022 and November 2025 with a net increase of 71.391 GW, according to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's latest Energy Infrastructure Update. During that same time, solar is expected to add 72.809 GW, nearly double all other fuels additions combined.

By November 2025, total renewables – wind, solar, hydro, biomass and geothermal – are expected to account for 32.5% of generating capacity across the US, according to FERC projections.

[Kassla Micek]

More: Rapid renewable expansion driving down gas, coal generation in coming years: EIA

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