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S&P Global Market Intelligence ($):

The Polish government approved Feb. 2 an energy policy to 2040 that targets a reduction in coal’s share of the power generation mix from 72% in 2020 to 56% in 2030 through the introduction of offshore wind and the further development of onshore wind and solar.

The government approved the “Polish Energy Policy to 2040” document, which is based on three pillars — a just transformation, a zero-emission energy system and good air quality — at its weekly meeting.

In a scenario of high EU emissions allowance prices, the document estimates that coal’s share of the generation mix could fall to 37% by 2030. By 2040, coal’s share is forecast to fall to at least 28% and to 11% in the event of sustained high emissions allowance prices.

Coal and lignite will be replaced by investments totaling 130 billion zlotys to build 8 GW to 11 GW of offshore wind capacity in the Baltic Sea. The first projects are due to be ready in 2025 and the policy estimates capacity will reach 5.9 GW by 2030.

Onshore wind capacity is forecast to rise from 6 GW to between 8 GW and 10 GW in 2030, while solar capacity will increase from 3.6 GW to between 5 GW and 7 GW. That target may already be on the low side as solar capacity almost tripled in 2020 alone.

Poland expects renewable energy to account for at least 23% of final gross energy demand in 2030, up from 12% in 2019, with the power sector contributing at least 32%, the heating sector 28%, and transport 14%.

[Adam Easton]

More ($): Poland adopts 2040 energy policy, plans to cut coal share to 56% by 2030 

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