Despite some near-term delays due to the Covid-19 pandemic, solar power and offshore wind will drive steep growth in non-hydro renewables in Asia, which will more than double between 2020 and 2029 to a capacity exceeding 1,500GW, Fitch Solutions forecast.
As markets recover gradually, the analyst sees an acceleration of growth over the coming years, also as several countries have made carbon neutrality pledges, among them China, Japan, South Korea or New Zealand. “For example, South Korea has established a Green New Deal similar to that of Europe, and will look to invest 73.4 trillion south Korean won ($67.41bn) over the next five years to expand its renewable energy capacity, green mobility industry (electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles) and the development of ‘smart green cities’,” Fitch said.
Solar is seen remaining the key growth driver in renewables, given its rapidly-falling component costs, led by China, which is expected to remain the largest individual market for solar growth, adding more than 263GW over the coming decade, followed by India and Japan, who are seen adding about 78GW and 35GW of net solar capacity.
Another key bright spot in the region is offshore wind, according to Fitch Solutions.
Taiwan remains one of the largest markets for wind at sea worldwide. The country has nearly 11.2GW of offshore wind capacity in the project pipeline at present, according to the analysts’ key projects database.
Fitch Solutions also expects several proposed policies to boost the development of wind at sea in Vietnam, with the market growing from its current base of 750MW of connected capacity to over 7GW by 2029. The government is in the process of amending seabed lease and licensing requirements for large-scale offshore wind farms.