May 14, 2018 Read More →

New Residential Requirement to Lift California Solar Sales 14%

Greentech Media:

California made national news this week in becoming the first state to require that solar be installed on virtually all new homes. The California Energy Commission approved the proposal on May 9, as part of an update to the state’s Building Energy Efficiency Standards. The codes apply to all new residences and major home renovations on buildings under three stories, beginning in 2020.

For the U.S. solar industry, the new standards are expected to boost residential solar sales 14 percent over a four-year timeframe from 2020 through 2023, according to a new analysis from GTM Research. That’s an upside of nearly 650 megawatts (DC) compared to GTM’s base-case forecast for the residential solar segment.

According to the California Energy Commission (CEC), nearly 75,000 new homes are expected to be built statewide in 2020. Based on that analysis, new-build solar will account for 23 percent of new installations in 2020 — or 222 megawatts.

While the average residential solar system size in California is 6.8 kilowatts, GTM Research assumes a system size of 3 kilowatts for new-build residential solar, based on CEC assumptions for the energy efficiency of new homes and historical data from the CEC’s New Solar Homes Partnership. These solar systems are smaller because new homes are more efficient, and they will become increasingly so as new efficiency requirements for things like lighting and ventilation also take effect in 2020.

According to a report conducted by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. on behalf of the CEC, solar system sizes under the new rules will range from 2.7 kilowatts in seaside San Diego to 5.7 kilowatts in sizzling Palm Springs. The upside for the solar industry could also be greater depending on solar trends.

More: California Rooftop Solar Mandate To Boost Sales 14% Over 4 Years

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