December 18, 2017 Read More →

IEA: ‘Coal’s Decade of Stagnation’

International Energy Agency:

Global coal demand dropped for a second year in a row in 2016, approaching the previous record for two-year declines set in the early 1990s. Global demand for coal fell by 1.9% in 2016 to 5 357 Mtce, as lower gas prices, a surge in renewables and energy efficiency improvements put a major dent on coal consumption. Demand for coal has now dropped by 4.2% since 2014, almost matching the fall of 1990-1992 which was the largest two-year decline recorded since the IEA started compiling statistics more than 40 years ago.

In 2016, rising coal use in India and other Asian countries was unable to offset large declines in the United States, China (where demand dropped for the third consecutive year) and in the United Kingdom (where demand dropped by more than 50%). In the United States, coal’s dominance in the power sector has been eroded by low gas prices; in China, coal demand has fallen due to lower use in the industrial and residential sectors linked to efforts to improve air quality; while in the United Kingdom a recently introduced carbon price floor has rung the death knell for coal use in power generation.

Coal’s share in the global energy mix is forecast to decline from 27% in 2016 to 26% in 2022 on sluggish demand growth relative to other fuels. Growth through 2022 is concentrated in India, Southeast Asia and a few other countries in Asia. Coal demand declines in Europe, Canada, the United States and China, the largest coal consumer by far, and where we forecast a structural but slow decline with some fluctuations linked to short-term market requirements.

As a result of these contrasting trends, global coal demand reaches 5 530 Mtce in 2022, which is only marginally higher than current levels, meaning that coal use all but stagnates for around a decade. Although coal-fired power generation increases by 1.2% per year in the period 2016-22, its share of the power mix falls to just below 36% by 2022, the lowest level since IEA statistics began.

Prospects for coal are bleak throughout most of Europe. The future of coal in Europe is increasingly tied to Poland and Germany, which account for more than half of the coal consumed in the European Union. In Poland, demand is forecast to be stable through 2022. In Germany, coal demand declines even as nuclear power is progressively phased out, with coal use remaining highly sensitive to the relative prices of coal, natural gas and carbon dioxide (CO2). The decrease in coal demand forecast in Germany could be accelerated by policy changes.

For most countries in Europe, coal is increasingly becoming a negligible part of the energy mix as a growing number of countries have closed or are closing their coal-fired power plants. Hard coal production in Europe outside Poland drops to marginal levels by 2022; lignite production remains meaningful in a few countries, but with a declining profile that follows power generation trends

Pakistan emerges in the coal landscape and others might follow. Endowed with vast reserves in the Thar lignite field and facing a severe energy shortage, Pakistan is betting on domestic and imported coal for electricity supply in the coming years. We forecast coal demand to more than quadruple between 2016 and 2022, with Pakistan emerging as a significant international player, with imports accounting for half of its consumption.

Bangladesh is also planning an expanded role for coal although developments through 2022 will be limited. Egypt has postponed its coal power plans, while in the United Arab Emirates, Dubai is set to open the first large coal power plant in the Middle East. However, these increases will be modest compared to today’s large consumers: Pakistan and Bangladesh combined will represent around 5% of India’s coal consumption by 2022.

Tight markets in China and some supply events pushed coal prices up in 2017. Thermal coal prices dropped to USD 70/t (European prices) during the first quarter of 2017 from highs at the end of 2016. Since then, higher demand in China to meet a surge in power demand and supply issues in some major exporters pushed prices up to USD 95/t in September 2017.

Volatility in spot coking coal prices has been much sharper, with prices almost doubling in three weeks to USD 290/t (FOB Australia) in April 2017 in the aftermath of cyclone Debbie hitting Queensland. After falling down below USD 140/t in June, coking coal prices went up over USD 200/t in September, largely on strong demand in China.

Price volatility is here to stay. Changes in China, whether in policy or economic circumstances, feed volatility in global coal markets given its sheer size and dominance in global trade. When combined with supply disruptions, this volatility is amplified. Prices will continue to depend largely on China; as a consequence, the structural reform of the Chinese coal industry is key to the evolution in coal prices.

Among exporting countries, Indonesia deserves special attention: expanding domestic demand combined with constraints on ramping up production might increase market tightness and push prices up. On the demand side, import levels of China, India, Korea and Japan are key uncertainties.

Imports to Japan, Korea and Chinese Taipei are under pressure. Whereas the delicate balance between imports and domestic production in China, and to a lesser extent India, made import volumes volatile in the past few years, stability in Northeast Asia (Japan, Korea and Chinese Taipei) provided a level of comfort for coal exporters. This is no longer the case. In Japan, sluggish power demand, rapid renewables deployment and the potential nuclear ramp-up provide a downside risk for coal. But this contrasts with the upside coming from substantial coal-power capacity currently in the pipeline. In Korea, the government is currently trying to reduce coal’s share in the power mix while over 5 GW of new coal capacity have just been commissioned and another 4 GW are under construction. In Chinese Taipei, where new coal capacity is coming on line, coal is facing growing social opposition.

Investment in coal mining has dried up despite higher prices. Production cost reductions in coal mining reached their limits in 2015, and since prices have moved higher, the urgency to cut costs has decreased. While recent price spikes have been welcome by producers, they have not led to behavioral changes. The wounds of the low-price period of 2013-15 are still fresh and supply discipline remains the motto for fear of oversupplying the market.

Despite growth expected in 2017, our forecast shows a contraction of seaborne coal trade through 2022, although India and Korea hold significant upside potential. The perception that current high prices are due to China’s policies and do not signal scarcity in the traditional way is not helping investor confidence. Given uncertainties and expected price volatility, there is limited appetite for big capital expenditures in coal production except in China and India, where investment is linked to meeting large domestic needs.

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