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IEEFA Research

IEEFA Puerto Rico: How to Play Hardball With Bondholders

Lessons for PREPA on Placing Customers (and the Economy) Ahead of Creditors

How much of its more than $8 billion in debt can the essentially bankrupt Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority pay back? A federal oversight board appointed four months ago to supervise debt restructuring for the entire Puerto Rican government offered up an indication last week. The board, empaneled in October under the auspices of the […]

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IEEFA U.S. Coal Outlook 2017: Short-Term Gains Muted by Prevailing Weaknesses in Fundamentals

IEEFA U.S. Coal Outlook 2017: Short-Term Gains Muted by Prevailing Weaknesses in Fundamentals

Production Declining by as Much as 40 Million Tons; Prices Failing to Benefit Shareholders or Stimulate New Investment; Anemic Exports; Little or No Gain From Regulatory Relief; Increasingly Dim Employment Prospects

We’re out this morning with our annual outlook for U.S. coal markets, and the picture isn’t pretty. We see the potential for some short-lived strength in the current uptick for coal producers but the title of our assessment sums up the larger view: “Short-Term Gains Will Be Muted by Prevailing Weaknesses in Fundamentals.” You can […]

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IEEFA Report: China Set to Dominate U.S. in Global Renewables Boom; $32 Billion in Overseas Investments in 2016 Alone

World’s 2nd-Biggest Economy Is Bankrolling Far More Projects, and in More Countries; Gap Will Widen If Trump Administration Delivers on Policy Intentions; ‘Clean Energy Isn’t a Sector to Turn Away From’

Jan 6, 2017 (IEEFA.org) – China will likely expand its dominance of the booming global renewable- and clean-energy industries as new American energy policies come into play, concludes a report published today by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA). “The change in leadership in the U.S. is likely to widen China’s global […]

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IEEFA Update: A Rush to Subsidies as Power Plants in Europe Face an Existential Threat

IEEFA Update: A Rush to Subsidies as Power Plants in Europe Face an Existential Threat

Paying Producers for Electricity They Might Never Generate

  So-called capacity markets are driving what appears to be a major new trend in energy policy across Europe: More public subsidies for electric utilities. Utilities may get—but not necessarily need or deserve—high-level government support for a variety of reasons, including for their role in equity markets, where they supply returns and dividends for pension […]

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IEEFA Europe: Can Coal Power Hang On?

IEEFA Europe: Can Coal Power Hang On?

Investors May Not Be Eager to Absorb More Losses Like Those Seen in Recent Dutch Build-Outs

Investment in new coal-fired power plants appears off the agenda in Western Europe. Witness the astonishing write-down of brand-new assets in the Netherlands, where European utility giants RWE, Uniper, and Engie have drastically reduced their valuations of plants barely a year old (read the report we published this morning, “The Dutch Coal Mistake,” which concludes […]

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IEEFA Asia: A Better Way Forward for Electrification in Bangladesh

IEEFA Asia: A Better Way Forward for Electrification in Bangladesh

We See a Viable and Sensible Renewables Path to Rapid Eradication of Energy Poverty and to Improvements in Health and Education

We’ve just published a report that outlines a highly feasible and more cost-effective alternative to expand electrification in Bangladesh than what the Bangladesh government has in mind. Our blueprint—“Bangladesh Electricity Transition: A Diverse, Secure and Deflationary Way Forward”—outlines an expansion that would be cheaper, cleaner and provide more national energy security. Our research models an […]

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IEEFA Update: IEA, Still Behind the Curve, Nonetheless Indicates Rising Stranded-Asset Risk in Fossil-Fuel Holdings

IEEFA Update: IEA, Still Behind the Curve, Nonetheless Indicates Rising Stranded-Asset Risk in Fossil-Fuel Holdings

A Not-So-Distant Future in Which Thermal-Fired Electricity Generation Declines Precipitously

The International Energy Agency, out with its annual energy-markets forecast, “World Energy Outlook 2016,” remains behind the curve but not as far behind as it was. A history of IEA underestimation of technology change has been partially remedied in this new report, but the agency’s solar and wind forecasts can at best be described still […]

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IEEFA Analysis: The Economic Frailties and Rickety Finances Behind the Dakota Access Pipeline

IEEFA Analysis: The Economic Frailties and Rickety Finances Behind the Dakota Access Pipeline

Shippers Are in a Position Now to Renegotiate Contracts; Oil Prices Have Tanked Since Deals Were Signed; Long-Term Outlook for Project is Deeply Uncertain

Construction of the Dakota Access Pipeline has sparked considerable public controversy, bringing national attention to issues that include tribal sovereignty and risks to drinking water. Less publicized are the project’s financial weaknesses, and the fact the pipeline may represent a substantial overbuilding of the Bakken’s oil-transport infrastructure. The report that we released today in partnership […]

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IEEFA Report: Three Timely Takeaways on 2016 Global Energy Transformation

IEEFA Report: Three Timely Takeaways on 2016 Global Energy Transformation

An Acceleration to Renewables, Faster-Than-Expected Shifts Regionally and Nationally, Growing Risk for Investors Who Lag Behind

Three notable takeaways emerge from the rapid transformation of the global energy economy, as we detail in a new paper we published today as the landmark Paris Agreement officially goes into effect. The global transition to renewables is accelerating. Change is happening faster than expected. Those left behind in this transition face growing financial risk. […]

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IEEFA Exxon: Telltale Crossover in Late 2014 Marks Where a Major Oil Stock Began to Go South

A Decoupling From the Larger Stock Market 2 Years Ago Portends a Future in Which the World’s Biggest Oil Company Will Be Smaller and Will Not Pay Out as Much in Shareholder Distributions

The world is moving in fits and starts but with gathering momentum toward a more diversified, low-carbon energy mix. The evidence is all around us. One exhibit, of many, is in the report we published this week—“Red Flags on Exxon: A Note to Institutional Investors”—which includes the chart here: ExxonMobil Financial Performance, 2006 – 2015 […]

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More News and Commentary

IEEFA Guest Commentary: Peabody Must No Longer Be Self Bonded

IEEFA Guest Commentary: Peabody Must No Longer Be Self Bonded

‘Dodging Debt Obligations Through Bankruptcy Proceedings’

Wyoming’s Department of Environmental Quality is facing a critical decision regarding Peabody Energy and whether the company can continue to self-bond for its $728 million Wyoming coal mine cleanup obligation. Self-bonds are unsecured IOUs, uncollectable when a company hides under bankruptcy protection. Peabody is the nation’s largest coal company, and is going through Chapter 11 […]

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IEEFA Update: Adani Has Gone Quiet on Its Australia Coal Mega-Project

Developer Lacks the Capacity to Go Forward on Carmichael

The latest quarterly financial report from Adani Enterprises Ltd. is illuminating in no small part for what it does not say. Adana is the company that for years has championed construction of the proposed Carmichael project in Australia, a multi-billion-dollar undertaking that would purport to supply coal to India. Yet the project gets no acknowledgement […]

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In Seeking White House Intervention, Protectors of Arizona Coal Plant Battle Market Realities

Amy Harder, Russell Gold, and Timothy Puko for the Wall Street Journal: President Donald Trump’s promise to help the coal industry could be facing its first big test: the decision earlier this week to close a large Arizona coal-burning power plant, and a demand that Mr. Trump prevent that shutdown. Majority owners of the Navajo […]

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On the Blogs: A ‘Robust, Enduring Strain of Bipartisanship’ in Support of Renewable-Energy Industries

David Roberts for Vox: On Monday, a bipartisan group of governors sent President Trump a letter touting the benefits of renewable energy. Among other things, the letter pointed to the $222 million a year that wind farms pay to rural landowners and the $100 million a year renewable energy businesses invest in low-income areas. It […]

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On the Blogs: Moody’s Sees Energy Transition Momentum as Unstoppable

Joe Walsh for EnvironentalFinance.com: Moody’s Investors Services points to the Financial Stability Board’s (FSB) Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosure (TCFD) as evidence of the direction of climate policy momentum in the financial sector. It is a growing area, with signatories to the Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) growing fivefold from 2006 to 2016. Moody’s […]

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Germany’s ‘Energy Revolution’ Is Felt in Poland and Czechoslovakia

Zeke Turner for the Wall Street Journal: A battle is raging in Central Europe over the balance of power—the electrical kind. Poland and the Czech Republic see Germany as an aggressor, overproducing electricity and dumping it across the border. Germany sees itself as a green-energy pioneer under unfair attacks from less innovative neighbors. As part […]

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On the Blogs: Why Allianz Is Investing Where the Wind Blows

Asa Gibson for EnvironentalFinance.com: Some 12 months ago, Allianz Capital Partners (ACP) reached a milestone when it closed its first renewable energy allocation outside Europe with a tax equity investment in a US wind farm. Since then, the in-house alternative asset manager of German insurance group Allianz has quadrupled its exposure to US wind using […]

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U.S. Renewables Generation Has Tripled Since 2008 but Continues to Lag China and Europe

Quirin Schiermeier for Nature Weekly Journal of Science: Renewable-energy capacity in the United States has more than tripled since 2008, according to a report published this month on US sustainable energy by the Business Council for Sustainable Energy (BCSE), an industry group. Energy capacity from sustainable energy sources such as wind, solar, biomass and geothermal […]

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A New Spot Record for Wind Generation: 52.1% Grid Penetration Across Central U.S.

Scott DiSavino for Reuters: Wind briefly powered more than 50 percent of electric demand on Sunday, the 14-state Southwest Power Pool (SPP) said, for the first time on any North American power grid. SPP coordinates the flow of electricity on the high voltage power lines from Montana and North Dakota to New Mexico, Texas and […]

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Op-Ed: Ohio Governor’s Embrace of Renewables Can Be Replicated in Wisconsin

Josh Zepnick for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Ohio Gov. John Kasich recently vetoed a bill that would have made statewide renewable and energy efficiency standards in Ohio voluntary for the next two years. Kasich understands that businesses that are the future of Ohio are committed to renewable energy. It is better for all sectors of […]

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